||A Reappraisal of Models of Commercial Property Cycles in the light of the Noughties Boom and Bust
||Jones, Colin A.; Stewart Cowe, Edward Trevillion
||A critical analysis of models of commercial property cycles provides the basis for a reappraisal based on the experience of the noughties boom and bust. The research quantifies the scale and timing of the cycle by reference to quarterly data and places it in an international context. The core of the analysis is the dynamics of the upswing and downside of the UK commercial property market over this period, setting it in an historical perspective. It encompasses the relationship between capital and rental value growth, the roles of investment funds and banking finance, and transactions by different types of purchasers and sellers. The analysis draws on data from MSCI/IPD on investment and capital values and from Property Data of transactions. It asks whether this time it was different? As a contribution to this answer this question it examines the role of globalisation and the changing business model of banks and new investment vehicles over the decades leading up to the boom and bust.
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||property cycles; property investment; bank lending; investment vehicles
Jones, Colin A.; Stewart Cowe, Edward Trevillion (2017).
A Reappraisal of Models of Commercial Property Cycles in the light of the Noughties Boom and Bust. 24th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Delft, Netherlands,